> >Just to stir the pot, there is something to be said in the molasses discussion about universal precautions, the shortcomings of risk assessments, and reinforcing safety habits.

There is a lot of exploration of these topics, particularly the shortcomings of risk assessments, in the peer review literature. One example is the article discussed in the recent Safety of Work podcast at
Ep.40 When should we trust expert opinions about risk?
https://safetyofwork.com/episodes/ep40-when-should-we-trust-expert-opinions-about-risk

An overview of their discussion as provided at their web site is:
‰?˘ The two questions the paper sought to answer.
‰?˘ What we mean by ‰??expertise‰??.
‰?˘ Forecasting.
‰?˘ Determining the value of a given expert.
‰?˘ Biases in reporting and researching.
‰?˘ Super-forecasting.
‰?˘ Wisdom of crowds.
‰?˘ Better ways to get better answers.
‰?˘ Why mathematical models aren‰??t as helpful as we think.
‰?˘ Practical takeaways.

Quotes:
- ‰??Is it best to grab ten oncologists and take the average of their opinions?‰??
- ‰??But there is this possibility that there are some people who are better at managing their own cognitive biases than others. And it‰??s not to do with domain expertise, it‰??s to do with a particular set of skills that they call ‰??super-forecasting‰??.‰??
- ‰??As far as I understand it, most organizations do not use complicated ways of combining expert opinions.‰??

Spoiler alert: the outcome of their discussion is that there is no formula to the risk assessment that leads to a specific conclusion, whether expert-based or lay person-based. Suggesting that someone got the "wrong answer" at the end of their risk assessment is not reproducible. The goal of the risk assessment process is a documented discussion that educates the participants rather than a list of management techniques associated with a snapshot in time of a process.

In their back catalog of this podcast, they discuss a variety of other academic papers that provide evidence for similar conclusions.

- Ralph

Ralph Stuart, CIH, CCHO
Environmental Safety Manager
Keene State College
603 358-2859

ralph.stuart**At_Symbol_Here**keene.edu

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