As most of you know, I own a lab and safety supply company. I wanted to share observations about the current pandemic crisis based on this perspective. I am not trying to be alarmist and don't want to start a rumor swapping thread. I just want everyone to understand the severity of what we're seeing. I am not reporting anything here based on rumor or innuendo, only what I have gotten firsthand.
1. As you might imagine, PAPR's, respirator hoods and Tyvek clothing of all kinds are in heavy demand. Our company works with a master distributor for these products and at this point they have now reached supply chain exhaustion. They are unable to fill or even backorder products for us. Direct quote: "We are currently not able to process your order or hold the amount open on backorder. Health concerns around COVID-19 have created high demands for respiratory and other related products worldwide. Manufacturers of these items are not able to confirm with us when replacements to our stock will be available. These events have placed stress on the supply chain for these safety products." In over 15 years in this business I had never heard of a purchase order being flat-out rejected. The message to take home from this is to a) conserve your supply even if this hasn't hit you yet and b) if you have no foreseeable need for these items even if things go sideways, consider donating them to your local hospital.
2. I have had some absolutely terrifying phone calls. I have a customer whose job is to intubate COVID-19 patients and he's desperate to get a PAPR hood - his order is on indefinite backorder and may not fill. A NJ hospital mentioned to me that they have pulled together every ventilator they could including the ones from the anesthesia staff and local outpatient surgery centers - they are all in use. They are now down to repairing reserves and will have to start splitting shortly. Another hospital worker at major medical center told me how staff had cross-contaminated the segregated floors. They are rationing PPE to the point they were only allowing two N95 masks to attend to an intubated Covid-19 patient - it takes at least four people just to turn someone in bed.
3. Testing in NJ is not showing real numbers. We are #2 in cases in the US and #19 per capita in testing. Tests are taking over a week to come back. Or, in my Dad's case, being lost or mishandled and not getting done (and, 8 days after the initial "test", they told him not to bother getting tested unless his symptoms worsen). Realistically, I would guess infection rates are at least 10x the official rate if not more; the only consolation being that the mortality rate is lower than the numbers suggest.
4. I have a handful of customer reports from countries such as Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and China. Saudi Arabia has suspended international passenger flights and this has had the effect of basically making it impossible to ship freight into the country. We have a couple pallets of eye washes that were paid for a few weeks ago and they are still sitting in Chicago. Saudi Arabia is also instituting curfews and travel restrictions between provinces/cities. And this thing is just getting started in most countries.
5. On the bright side, the safety business in general is running strong. Everyone in the industry is an essential business and shipments (except for shortage items) are continuing apace. I have been very impressed with how quickly various vendors have come up with signage, posters etc. concerning hand washing, sanitizer, Covid-19 etc. Most of our suppliers are US-based and have managed to keep running, although some are doing so with reduced workforces either because of employee sickness/absence, social distancing at work and, when possible, having people work from home. And demand has not really tapered off that much, even for items not directly related to Covid. The places that need to be functioning are functioning, and we have a LOT of great people everywhere to thank for that.
So in short, be vigilant and prepare. We will get through this. I think it's a fair guess that the front-line medical workers and first responders will be the Time Persons of the Year if not the decade. WHO is the logical choice for the Nobel Peace Prize. Be thankful that we have so many dedicated people risking their own lives to keep everyone else safe and healthy.
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