I think Mineur has a point in that there are advantages to a Bayesian approach to assessing the likelihood of a risk, especially in situations where we don’t
have large data sets of incidents and near-misses to inform a determination of the scientific probability for each type of risk we want to assess.
His argument against the risk matrix as a whole, however, seems to rest on a straw man. The risk matrix does not exist solely as a 3x3 matrix with linear scaling.
In fact, in the resources that the ACS provides for risk assessment (e.g.
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/chemical-safety/hazard-assessment/fundamentals/risk-assessment.html) the use of a weighted scale is described, with the explanation that each institution should first define an appropriate scaling method.
________________________________
Christopher M. Kolodziej, Ph.D.
Chemical Hygiene Officer
UCLA Environment, Health & Safety | Laboratory Safety
From: ACS Division of Chemical Health and Safety <DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**PRINCETON.EDU>
On Behalf Of David C. Finster
Sent: Thursday, October 17, 2019 6:59 AM
To: DCHAS-L**At_Symbol_Here**PRINCETON.EDU
Subject: [DCHAS-L] Validity of the risk matrix
While stumbling around the web with regard to thinking about the risk matrix, I came upon an article that questioned its value:
https://medium.com/**At_Symbol_Here**JornMineur/why-the-risk-matrix-must-die-620a7287e7c
The essence of the argument, I think, is that estimates of probability are very unreliable. I’d appreciate the wisdom of the list regarding this essay and its conclusion.
Dave
David C. Finster
Professor Emeritus, Department of Chemistry
Wittenberg University
--- For more information about the DCHAS-L e-mail list, contact the Divisional membership chair at
membership**At_Symbol_Here**dchas.org Follow us on Twitter **At_Symbol_Here**acsdchas
Previous post | Top of Page | Next post